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Morning Forex Report : Non Farm Payroll breakout trade idea.

02/07/2010 by about : Forex Trading - 0 Comments - 402 words

Market update: 05.30 GMT

This morning, forex markets are unwinding some of the huge moves made throughout yesterday's session. It was certainly one of the strangest sessions that betonmarkets has seen for a while, with each pair seeming to trade with a life of its own. The EUR/USD gained by 2.5%, a move that had many market observers scratching their heads in confusion (and leaving some trading desks with burnt fingers).

On the positive side, US stock markets recovered from near 2% intraday losses to close down around 0.3%. This morning, the US dollar is regaining some of its swagger, with the USD/JPY rising 0.35%. The yen is on the back foot as speculators reach feel confident enough to take some risks.

Non Farm Payroll (NFP)

There is only one announcement that really matters today - US Non Farm Payrolls due at 13.30.

Wednesday's ADP jobs data was a downside shock, forcing analysts to massively downgrade their expectations for today's top tier economic announcement. Analysts are now expecting a drop in employment change of -106,000, a figure hastily revised downwards, representing sharp reversal of the upwards momentum.

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If there is a big positive or negative deviation from the -106K estimation, there could be a huge reaction on forex pairs. The USD/CHF has been a strongly trending pair of late so could be a prime candidate for a big reaction to a NFP miss.

Trade idea

A good way to play this could be a breakout trade on the USD/CHF with the triggers set to 1.0450 and 1.0750. If the USD/CHF hits either of these points in the next 3 days, the bet could return 140%.

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Forex moves:

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This article and trading idea is supplied/ written by betonmarkets


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